40-Man & Payroll Update: 12/26

I know a lot of you are upset that it has taken me so long to update this. Please except my apologies as the holidays have kept me away from DSP.

The last thing to happen was Melky Cabrera, Mike Dunn, and Arodys Vizcaino (Arodys was not on the 40-man to begin with) being traded for Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan.

So here's the latest 40-man roster, along with their actual or projected (in italics) salaries...

Pitchers
Aceves .5
Albaladejo .45
Brackman 1.1375
Burnett 16.5
Chamberlain .75
De La Rosa .45
Garcia .45
Gaudin 3
Hughes .75
Logan .45
Marte 4
Melancon .5
Mitre 2 (not sure what his option was for, but to re-sign him I'll guess high)
Noesi .4
Nova .4
Pettitte 11.75
Ramirez .45
Rivera 15
Robertson .5
Sabathia 23
Sanchez .45
Javier Vazquez 11.5

Catchers
Cervelli .5
Posada 13.1

Infielders
Cano 9
Corona .4
Jeter 21
Johnson 5.5
Miranda .4
Nunez .4
Pena .5
Rodriguez 29 (3 more, but to be paid by Texas)
Russo .4
Teixeira 20

Outfielders
Gardner .75
Granderson 5.5
Hoffmann .4
Swisher 6.75

Our total now is $207.5375, with 38 spots filled.

Although the starting rotation seems to be settled after the Melky/Vazquez trade, we now seem to have a hole in LF. Unless you're one of the people that thinks Gardner can fill that hole. Personally? Not a chance he can, and the Yankees will get somebody else. The latest rumor has Reed Johnson coming to the Yankees. I'm not sure how I feel about that seeing as how last season he played in 65 games, and in 2007 he played in only 79 (109 games played in 2008), but okay. He made $3 million last season, and as a worst case scenario I'll add that to the total payroll. That would leave 1 more spot, which would probably be filled by a minor leaguer making the league minimum ($400,000).

So our projected total for the entire 40-man roster would be $211.3875 million.

40-Man and Payroll Update

With the addition of Nick Johnson, here is yet another update to the 2010 40-man roster and payroll. The number after them is their actual or probable salary in 2010 (in millions)...

Pitchers
Aceves .5
Albaladejo .45
Brackman 1.1375
Burnett 16.5
Chamberlain .75
De La Rosa .45
Dunn .45
Garcia .45
Gaudin 3
Hughes .75
Marte 4
Melancon .5
Mitre 2 (not sure what his option was for, but to re-sign him I'll guess high)
Noesi .4
Nova .4
Pettitte 11.75
Ramirez .45
Rivera 15
Robertson .5
Sabathia 23
Sanchez .45

Catchers
Cervelli .5
Posada 13.1

Infielders
Cano 9
Corona .4
Jeter 21
Johnson 5.5
Miranda .4
Nunez .4
Pena .5
Rodriguez 29 (3 more, but to be paid by Texas)
Russo .4
Teixeira 20

Outfielders
Cabrera 2
Gardner .75
Granderson 5.5
Hoffmann .4
Swisher 6.75

Our total now is $198.4875, with 37 spots filled.

The Yankees have said they want to add one more pitcher, and the "flavor of the week" is Ben Sheets. My guess is that he would make around $7 million, which would bring the payroll to $205.4875. And 2 more spots to fill on the 40-man, which very well could be a couple of kids that will make less than a million bucks combined. So the final 2010 payroll would be a little under $207 million.

LF is not that big an issue

When talking about the LF vacancy people are always bringing up the big names. Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, Johnny Damon, being the main ones (being FAs at least). Over at River Ave Blues they brought up other options such as Matt Kemp, Jay Bruce, and Josh Hamilton. They did get away from the "big" names and talk about Seth Smith of Colorado.

But why think big? The Yankees already have 5 OFers on their Active Roster...Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher, Melky Cabrera, Brett Gardner, and Jamie Hoffmann. And 3 of those guys are viable starters (Curtis, Nick, and Melky). Not to mention that with a possible lineup of Jeter, Granderson, Teixeira, Rodriguez, Posada, Cano, Swisher, Cabrera, and Miranda, the Yankees do not need a big bat/name in LF anyway. I can see where people may be concerned about the fact that being down Matsui and Damon, while adding Granderson and Miranda, could logically lead to less runs scored by the offense.

But think about this...the Yankees scored 32 more runs than the 2nd highest team in MLB (915 to LAA's 883). They also hit the most HRs than the 2nd highest team in MLB by 20 (244 to Tex's 224). And hey were only in 2nd in team BA by .002 (.283 to LAA's .285), and ahead of the 3rd place Twins by .009 (.283 to .274). So the Yankees don't need to improve on offense, and could in fact lose a little bit there and still be the best offense in MLB.

So why not simply take a flier on a low-risk/high-reward player, sort of like the Yankees would with Sheets and Duchscherer as starters? Sign Xavier Nady. Have you heard the X-man talked about much at all? I mean..is there a demand for his services? All I can remember hearing is that the Cardinals would be interested. Well if they sign Holliday, which they seem determined to do (8 year deal or not), then I'm betting Nady will drop off their radar.

And taking a look at runs scored, and runs produced (Runs and RBI...yes, it's crude), while hoping that Nady could hit would he did in his last full season (2008), then the Yankees would lose 2 runs and 4 RBI going from Matsui/Damon to Nady/Granderson. And that's thinking Granderson's totals wouldn't go up moving from the Tiger lineup to the Yankee one.
__________________

40-Man Roster and Payroll - 12/9/2009

*Estimates at 2010 Salary in italics

Pitchers
Aceves .5
Albaladejo .45
Brackman 1.1375
Burnett 16.5
Chamberlain .75
De La Rosa .45
Dunn .45
Garcia .45
Gaudin 3
Hughes .75
Marte 4
Melancon .5
Mitre 2
Noesi .4
Nova .4
Pettitte 11.75
Ramirez .45
Rivera 15
Robertson .5
Sabathia 23
Sanchez .45

Catchers
Cervelli .5
Posada 13.1

Infielders
Cano 9
Corona .4
Jeter 21
Miranda .4
Nunez .4
Pena .5
Rodriguez 29 (he'll actually get $3 million more, but that's to be paid by Texas)
Russo .4
Teixeira 20

Outfielders
Cabrera 2
Gardner .75
Granderson 5.5
Swisher 6.75

That makes 36 out of 40 spots. And the total payroll now sits at $190.1375 million.

Update on Possible 2010 Payroll

Thumbnail image for payroll.jpgI've changed my mind about things since the last time I checked in on what the payroll for the 2010 Yankees may look like. Well, to be honest, I've changed my mind about a half dozen times since that October 20th post.

The following is a post I put up on Daily Sports Pages (check it out by clicking the link to the right, and then sign up and join the conversations).

Since I'm warming up to the idea of Lackey and Granderson, I decided to take another look at the possible payroll for 2010 with them in it. Because, after all, the Yankees are at least pondering a budget for the team.

So here's the 40-man roster as it looks now. The number after them is their actual or probable salary in 2010 (in millions)...

Pitchers
Aceves .5
Albaladejo .45
Brackman 1.1375
Bruney 1.5
Burnett 16.5
Chamberlain .75
Coke .5
De La Rosa .45
Dunn .45
Garcia .45
Gaudin 3
Hughes .75
Kennedy .5
Marte 4
Melancon .5
Mitre 2 (not sure what his option was for, but to bring him back I'll guess high)
Noesi .4
Nova .4
Ramirez .45
Rivera 15
Robertson .5
Sabathia 23
Sanchez .45
Wang 5 (going high again for worst case scenario)

Catchers
Cervelli .5
Posada 13.1

Infielders
Cano 9
Corona .4
Jeter 21
Miranda .4
Nunez .4
Pena .5
Rodriguez 29 (he'll actually get $3 million more, but that's to be paid by Texas)
Russo .4
Teixeira 20

Outfielders
Cabrera 2
Gardner .75
Jackson .4
Swisher 6.75

That makes 39 out of 40 spots. Now I don't think they should bring back Mitre, so I'm going to take him out, leaving 38 spots. The total at this point would be $161.2375 million.

Additions
Pettitte 12 (aiming high here again, just in case)
Lackey 17
Matsui 7
Granderson 5.5

Adding those 4 brings the total up to $202.7375 million. Those additions would also mean opening up 2 more spots on the 40-man, but in a trade for Granderson I don't think that'll be an issue. Of course, this doesn't take into account the money taken off due to losing a couple of guys on the 40-man either. So it would probably be a little under $202 million.

$202 million for this...

Lineup
Jeter-SS
Granderson-CF
Teixeira-1B
Rodriguez-3B
Matsui-DH
Posada-C
Cano-2B
Swisher-RF
Cabrera-LF

Rotation
Sabathia
Lackey
Burnett
Pettitte
Chamberlain

Set-Up Man and Closer

Hughes
Rivera

Offseason Plans

Evil Plan.jpgAfter speaking with numerous other Yankee fans I think I've come to a good plan for the Yankees/Cashman for this offseason, leading into 2011. But before I get into that, I want to talk about Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain.

Oh, stop with the sighing!

Anyway, below is an email I sent to Mike at River Ave Blues.

I understand people's reluctance to go into next season with both Joba and Phil in the rotation. So not only would those people like to bring back Pettitte, but they'd also like the Yankees to sign a guy like Lackey. But that would hurt Phil and Joba's development as starters.

One of two things would happen if Lackey, or another FA, were signed...

1. Phil Hughes is returned to the bullpen, with Joba as the #5 starter. Another season with Phil as a reliever!?!? Not only would that mean the Yankees wouldn't be able to count on him as a starter for 2011 or the near future, but Phil's value to other teams in a trade goes down significantly (teams value starters over relievers). So in this case, Phil could very well turn into a reliever for life, and we'll never know if he could have reached his potential as a #1 starter in MLB.

2. Joba Chamberlain is moved to the bullpen, with Phil as the #5 starter. And people called John Kerry a flip-flopper! The Yankees pushed him as a starter for all of 2009, only to put him back in the bullpen? He wasn't CMW bad in 2009. Hell, he wasn't actually bad at all. We saw glimpses of brilliance in Joba after the All Star break last season. And we're going to throw that away? That would really hurt his development, and make other teams not want to trade for him either. So the Yankees would miss out on a possible #1 starter in MLB here too.

I believe, if the Yankees don't want both of these kids in the rotation in 2010, then they HAVE to trade one of them. So they should probably forget about Lackey, or somebody else like Randy Wolf. Go after Halladay, or another elite pitcher with Joba or Phil as the big piece of a trade package, or stick with the kids in the rotation.


I know it was painful to read more Joba/Phil stuff. But when you see the first bullet in my plan for 2010 you'll understand why I showed you that email.

2010 Plan
  • Trade Joba Chamberlain in a package for Roy Halladay. Toronto has a choice, they either lower their demands in a trade for Halladay, or they accept 2 draft picks for losing Halladay in the 2010/2011 offseason to free agency. Joba, Gardner, and a couple other pieces, or 2 draft picks? What would you take?
  • Sign Hideki Matsui to a 1 year deal. I haven't heard anybody, or read anything, say he's going to want a multi-year deal.
  • Sign Matt Holliday for however many years. 
Lineup
Jeter-SS
Swisher-RF
Teixeira-1B
Rodriguez-3B
Holliday-LF
Matsui-DH
Posada-C
Cano-2B
Cabrera-CF

Starting Rotation
Roy Halladay
CC Sabathia
AJ Burnett
Andy Pettitte
Phil Hughes

Now this would require the Yankees to spend a bit more than last year. Including Rivera, and without the bench and the rest of the bullpen, they would be looking at a payroll around $213 million. The Yankees could construct Holliday's contract so that it doesn't pay as much in the beginning, in order to keep the 2010 payroll down. Not to mention that I went high and figured around $8 million for a year of Matsui. Oh, and I said about $1.5 million for Hughes. But for those of you worried about payroll, there is good news next season, so keep reading.

2011 Plan
  • Re-sign Halladay (if he hasn't already signed an extension).
  • Sign Carl Crawford
  • Promote Austin Jackson. I figured he'll probably be up later this season, but in 2011 it should turn into a full-time gig.
  • Try and trade Melky or Swisher for prospects.
Lineup
Crawford-LF
Jeter-SS
Teixeira-1B
Rodriguez-3B
Holliday-RF
Posada-C
Cano-2B
Swisher/Melky/Montero-DH
Jackson-CF
The order of the lineup can change. I'm not set on this at all. Just getting the names out there.

Starting Rotation
Roy Halladay
CC Sabathia
AJ Burnett
Phil Hughes
Ivan Nova/Zach McAllister/"FA"/???

I haven't forgot about the payroll people out there. With this lineup and rotation, the payroll should come in around $205 million. I figured about $20 million for re-signing Halladay, as well as $17 million for Crawford. Then there was Hughes raise to $2 million. AJax won't get much, so I figured $500,000 would be a good guess. And keep in mind that this does not include Rivera, who will most likely retire.

I'm going to be updating this as things change, or I simply change my mind (which is known to happen). But feel free to let me know what you think by commenting here, emailing me, or joining the conversation at Daily Sports Pages' Yankees Forum (link to DSP is to the right).


The World Series Rotation

Darth ARod.jpg
I'm not sure on the rotation. I figured it would be one of three scenarios...

Scenario 1:
Gm1 - CC
Gm2 - AJ
OFF DAY
Gm3 - Andy
Gm4 - CC (3 days rest)
Gm5 - AJ (3 days rest)
OFF DAY
Gm6 - Andy (3 days rest)
Gm7 - CC (3 days rest)

Scenario 2:
Gm1 - CC
Gm2 - AJ
OFF DAY
Gm3 - Andy
Gm4 - Gaudin
Gm5 - CC (4 days rest)
OFF DAY
Gm6 - AJ (5 days rest)
Gm7 - Andy (4 days rest)

Scenario 3:
Gm1 - CC
Gm2 - AJ
OFF DAY
Gm3 - Andy
Gm4 -CC (3 days rest)
Gm5 - Gaudin
OFF DAY
Gm6 - AJ (5 days rest)
Gm7 - Andy (4 days rest)

Scenario 1 seems like it would be best, as CC goes 3 times in the series (if it goes that far), while AJ and Andy both get 2 starts. But can those two be counted on on short rest? I know Andy can go on 4 days, since he has before (and was going to on Saturday night). But 3?

Of course, we could drop Andy's 2nd start in Scenario 3, and use CC on 3 days instead.

I'd rather go Scenario 2. That would mean Gaudin takes a start, and CC only gets 2 starts. But AJ would get 5 days off, and Andy would get 4. And we know they can be 100% then. The 4th day off for CC would be nice. And CC would be available for Game 7, if for whatever reason Pettitte struggles.

NOT...the Best of the Best

umpires.jpgOut of all the things you've heard and read regarding the poor umpiring, the one thing you haven't heard or read is to replace...or even fire...those umpires. Instead, a lot of people would rather give the umpires instant replay. Don't get better umpires...give them something that will cover up their ineptness. Don't you wish you could eff up at work, only to have some machine correct the mistake for you? And even better...when you do eff up, nobody says a single word about replacing you. Congratulations, MLB umpires! You make 6 figures, and you don't even have to be that good at your job. The American dream!

I have a part-time job as a mechanic at a bowling alley. And if I don't do my job well, do you think they will buy something that will do my job for me? Hell no. I'll get fired, and replaced by somebody that can do the job well. And unlike an MLB umpire that is making between $120,000 and $350,000 (source), I'm making a measly $9/hr.

One of the funniest things I've read recently was this. It turns out that MLB is not going to put the "best" umpires on the field in the World Series. No...they are going to use the "most experienced". Great!

One thing though...do you know what umpire, currently working in the ALCS, is one of the most experienced, with 26.5 years in MLB? I'll give you a hint...it's the same guy that not only missed the call at 3B in which Nick Swisher had apparently left the bag early on a tag play, but also missed the fact that both Robinson Cano and Jorge Posada were tagged out since neither one was touching a base. It was Tim McClelland. So much for the "most experienced" thing.

By the way, Phil Cuzzi and CB Bucknor, two other umpires that have made bone-headed calls/non-calls this postseason, both have 10 years experience in MLB. Which seems like a lot, especially considering that these guys umpire 10-12 years in the minors, and more than that in college and/or high school. However, I found a couple of umpires that have been in MLB for 30 (Derryl Cousins) and 32 years (Jerry Crawford). You can see the full roster of MLB umpires here.

I just read a good interview, from The Cleveland Plain Dealer in August 2005, with MLB Vice President of Umpiring, Mike Port. You can see it for yourself here. A few things really stood out to me.

PD: Is there a grading system for umpires?

MP: There is. It's more of a pass / fail situation. We have certain categories where they are graded in terms of exceeded / met / did not meet. It's not anything in terms of a numerical scale, but we do evaluate virtually everything related to umpiring.

Pass/Fail? Really? As a college student, is there anything better than taking a pass/fail course? Where you can get a 65, but instead of having to deal with a "D" on your record, you simply get a "Pass". But we all know that real college courses don't do that. Yet, in a job that makes a person up to $350,000 a year, they don't give "real" grades. But a simple "pass" or "fail". That's ludicrous. How do you look at the grades to determine who gets a postseason spot? From memory? Memory of all 68 MLB umpires? Yeah...right.

I'm glad that the umpires do get some sort of grading throughout the year. And some even get punished for really bad calls, or whatever. But do you think there's any college that gives out their Magna *** Laude based on what the professors remember? I'm pretty sure they actually look at student's GPAs. And remember...those GPAs are established using real grades, and aren't based on how many "pass/fails" the student received.

PD: Are they graded each game?

MP: Yes - from every game that is observed firsthand, which is just over 55 percent of them. In those games, we look not only at the pitch-evaluation system, but missed calls, ejections, other situations. We watch demeanor, hustle, form, concentration.

Good. But can we give them an actual grade on those things. Not simply a "pass" or "fail".

Okay...so the umpires actually get an "exceeded", "met", "did not meet". Not a "pass" or "fail". But honestly...is there really much of a difference? Out of 68 umpires, can you really see who's the best based on those 3 things? No...you can't. Moving on...

PD: Can an umpire, regardless of service time, get demoted to the minors because of too many mistakes or consistently poor ball-strike calls?

MP: In a word, no. The system is not set up that way. We believe the best point of evaluation comes when the umpire is added to the staff. These guys trained for a substantial amount of time to get where they are. You need to hire the right people.

What!?!? Umpires have tenure? WTF? That's complete bull. Do I really need to explain how messed up that is? I mean, you do know that as you get older your reaction time, and sight, tend to get worse? Right? So it's possible that you were one of the best after 10 years in the game, but once you were around for 20 years you just weren't able to do the job well because you're body failed you. Ugh.

Look. Keep the grading system. But instead of "exceed", "met", "did not meet". Start giving out real grades. Hell, make it a 1-10 system. And then, at the end of the regular season, you can make a true list of the best umpires...and put them into the postseason. And if an umpire's final grade is low enough, say "thanks, but we're letting you go". And then, after using the same system in the minors, promote the umpire with the highest grades to MLB.

Put the best umpires on the field....period. Because by not doing so, you're opening yourselves up to major scrutiny, or worse yet...getting replaced by cameras and/or robots.


Payroll: Part 3

As I see it, this is what the Active Roster will look like on Opening Day...

Starting Pitchers:
CC Sabathia
AJ Burnett
Joba Chamberlain
Phil Hughes
????????

Relief Pitchers:

Alfredo Aceves
Phil Coke
Ian Kennedy
Damaso Marte
David Robertson
????????

Closer:
Mariano "I Am a ******* God" Rivera

Starting Lineup:
C - Francisco Cervelli
1B - Mark Teixeira
2B - Robinson Cano
3B - Alex Rodriguez
SS - Derek Jeter
LF - ????????
CF - Melky Cabrera
RF - Nick Swisher
DH - Jorge Posada

Bench:
IF - Ramiro Pena
OF - Brett Gardner
C - ????????
UTIL - ????????

That leaves holes at Starting Pitcher, Left Field, Relief Pitcher, 3rd Catcher (Bench), Utility Man (Bench). So here are some options to fill those roles...

Starting Pitcher - Andy Pettitte. I'll go ahead and guess high on his 2010 salary and say $12 million.

Left Field - Matt Holliday. I think he'll get about $18 million.

3rd Catcher - Oh hell...I don't know. They could bring back Molina, but my guess is that a guy like Chris Stewart (played in Scranton last season) gets a shot. If they go with Stewart, I'd guess he only makes about $400,000.

Utility - Jerry Hairston Jr. I've heard that Girardi just loves this guy, and he's been great for this role. He plays the infield and outfield well, and can hit okay too. Now he made $2 million this year, so what the hell...give him a raise. $3 million.

Relief Pitcher - I don't see the Yankees signing a free agent to pitch in relief. With a strong core of Aceves, Coke, Kennedy (who I believe will replace Gaudin, and could see some starts in place of Phil), Marte, and Robertson they are pretty well set. Perhaps Mark Melancon works his way back in there.

That would add $33.40 million to the 2010 payroll, bringing the total now to $204.7875 million. And there would be 5 more spots free on the 40-Man Roster, which I expect to be filled by promoted minor leaguers that will make around $400,000 each (or another $2 million).

That would make the total for the Yankees 2010 Payroll $206.7875 million.

I had put Matt Holliday in there to show the possibility of adding him to the payroll, and not spending more than they already are. I'm not saying the Yankees should do that. But they probably can and still save.

But I'm not sold on bringing Damon back to man LF either. However, if they did that they could then go after a pitcher like Bedard or Harden.

Payroll: Part 2

Here is what the roster for 2010 currently looks like. The number next to them are either their 2010 salary per their contracts, or their expected salary per arbitration. Now some of these arbitration raises are up for debate. But hell if I know what a normal raise would be like, so there's a lot of guesswork involved.

Alfredo Aceves ~$500,000
Jonathan Albaladejo ~$450,000
Andrew Brackman $1.1375 million
Brian Bruney ~$1.5 million
AJ Burnett $16.5 million
Joba Chamberlain ~$750,000
Phil Coke ~$500,000
Wilkin De La Rosa ~$450,000
Michael Dunn ~$450,000
Chris Garcia ~$450,000
Phil Hughes ~$750,000
Ian Kennedy ~500,000
Mark Melancon ~$500,000 (actual number not known)
Damaso Marte $4 million
Edwar Ramirez $450,000
Mariano Rivera $15 million
David Robertson $500,000
CC Sabathia $23 million

Francisco Cervelli $500,000
Jorge Posada $13.1 million

Robinson Cano $9 million
Derek Jeter $21 million
Juan Miranda $400,000 - no raise due to contract
Ramiro Pena ~$500,000
Alex Rodriguez $29 million (Texas will pay $3 million in deferred compensation from previous contract)
Mark Teixeira $20 million

Melky Cabrera $2 million
Shelley Duncan ~$500,000
Brett Gardner $750,000
Freddy Guzman ~$500,000
Nick Swisher $6.75 million

Total: $171.3875 million

Now this only makes 31. Those that are not included are Jose Molina, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Jerry Hairston Jr., Andy Pettitte, Chad Gaudin, Eric Hinske, Sergio Mitre, and Josh Towers. These players do not have a contract for 2010, nor are they arbitration eligible.