Will Kerry Wood find a closer gig for sure? Brian Fuentes, JJ Putz, Jon Rauch, Mariano Rivera*, Koji
Uehara, and Rafael Soriano are guys that will be free agents this
winter, who have been or could be good/great closers. So it’s not like there
are few closers for teams to choose from, meaning Wood may be in for a
set-up role, with a possibility to close, after all.

Looking at the fact that the
Yankees paid Damaso Marte $4 million a year to be a lefty reliever (not
even a set-up man), means the Yankees could offer Wood at least $5
million. Out of the top 10 in saves this season, only 3 of them made
over $5 million (Soriano, Cordero, and Wagner). So would Wood get more
than $5 million? I don’t think so.

So I’m changing my stance on Kerry
returning to NY. There’s enough supply to go with the closer demand,
and the Yankees can easily offer as much or more than he’d get as a
closer elsewhere. Not to mention that at 33 years old (34 come June of
next year), youth is not on his side, and teams are less likely to hand
out large contracts to a guy Wood’s age with a history of injuries.

The total amount of player payroll in the 2009 season was about $2.8123
billion, making the average MLB team payroll $93.74m. Keeping the same
amount of money in the total player payroll, and separating the cap and
the floor by $20 million (the NFL’s last salary cap and floor were
separated by about $16 million), you end up with a cap of $103.74
million and a floor of $83.74 million.

There were 16 teams in MLB in 2009 that spent less than $83 million on
their team’s payroll. Out of those teams, 6 of them would have to spent
more on payroll than their operating income was for the year. To put it
simply, the teams’ would all lose money. Those teams, by the way, are
the Rangers, DBacks, Rays, Pirates, Padres, and Marlins. You’d be
forcing those teams either to except losing money, or making them fold.

And in case you were wondering, there were only 5 teams within that
$103.74m/$83.74m cap and floor in 2009. Leaving 9 teams that were above
the “cap”.

I really see no way the Player’s Union accepts something that controls
how much money they can make. It just has too much power in MLB. Before
you bring up whether it should or not, that’s a whole other discussion.
The fact of the matter is…the Union does have that much power. I
believe we’re simply going to see a stronger luxury tax or revenue
sharing. As the Yankees have shown, teams are more willing to hand over
money in such a system, than be held back from improving their teams.
Meaning the owners would be a hell of a lot more willing to allow such a
tax change, than the Union would allow a cap/floor.

Sources:
Team Payroll: Cot’s Baseball Contracts
Team Operating Income: Forbes.com’s The Business of Baseball
NFL Salary Cap/Floor: Wikipedia

I know a lot of you are upset that it has taken me so long to update
this. Please except my apologies as the holidays have kept me away from
DSP.

The last thing to happen was Melky Cabrera, Mike Dunn, and Arodys
Vizcaino (Arodys was not on the 40-man to begin with) being traded for
Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan.

So here’s the latest 40-man roster, along with their actual or projected (in italics) salaries…

Pitchers
Aceves .5
Albaladejo .45
Brackman 1.1375
Burnett 16.5
Chamberlain .75
De La Rosa .45
Garcia .45
Gaudin 3
Hughes .75
Logan .45
Marte 4
Melancon .5
Mitre 2 (not sure what his option was for, but to re-sign him I’ll guess high)
Noesi .4
Nova .4
Pettitte 11.75
Ramirez .45
Rivera 15
Robertson .5
Sabathia 23
Sanchez .45
Javier Vazquez 11.5

Catchers
Cervelli .5
Posada 13.1

Infielders
Cano 9
Corona .4
Jeter 21
Johnson 5.5
Miranda .4
Nunez .4
Pena .5
Rodriguez 29 (3 more, but to be paid by Texas)
Russo .4
Teixeira 20

Outfielders
Gardner .75
Granderson 5.5
Hoffmann .4
Swisher 6.75

Our total now is $207.5375, with 38 spots filled.

Although the starting rotation seems to be settled after the
Melky/Vazquez trade, we now seem to have a hole in LF. Unless you’re
one of the people that thinks Gardner can fill that hole. Personally?
Not a chance he can, and the Yankees will get somebody else. The latest
rumor has Reed Johnson coming to the Yankees. I’m not sure how I feel
about that seeing as how last season he played in 65 games, and in 2007
he played in only 79 (109 games played in 2008), but okay. He made $3
million last season, and as a worst case scenario I’ll add that to the
total payroll. That would leave 1 more spot, which would probably be
filled by a minor leaguer making the league minimum ($400,000).

So our projected total for the entire 40-man roster would be $211.3875 million.

With the addition of Nick Johnson, here is yet another update to the
2010 40-man roster and payroll. The number after them is their actual
or probable salary in 2010 (in millions)…

Pitchers
Aceves .5
Albaladejo .45
Brackman 1.1375
Burnett 16.5
Chamberlain .75
De La Rosa .45
Dunn .45
Garcia .45
Gaudin 3
Hughes .75
Marte 4
Melancon .5
Mitre 2 (not sure what his option was for, but to re-sign him I’ll guess high)
Noesi .4
Nova .4
Pettitte 11.75
Ramirez .45
Rivera 15
Robertson .5
Sabathia 23
Sanchez .45

Catchers
Cervelli .5
Posada 13.1

Infielders
Cano 9
Corona .4
Jeter 21
Johnson 5.5
Miranda .4
Nunez .4
Pena .5
Rodriguez 29 (3 more, but to be paid by Texas)
Russo .4
Teixeira 20

Outfielders
Cabrera 2
Gardner .75
Granderson 5.5
Hoffmann .4
Swisher 6.75

Our total now is $198.4875, with 37 spots filled.

The Yankees have said they want to add one more pitcher, and the
“flavor of the week” is Ben Sheets. My guess is that he would make
around $7 million, which would bring the payroll to $205.4875. And 2
more spots to fill on the 40-man, which very well could be a couple of
kids that will make less than a million bucks combined. So the final
2010 payroll would be a little under $207 million.

__________________

*Estimates at 2010 Salary in italics

Pitchers
Aceves .5
Albaladejo .45
Brackman 1.1375
Burnett 16.5
Chamberlain .75
De La Rosa .45
Dunn .45
Garcia .45
Gaudin 3
Hughes .75
Marte 4
Melancon .5
Mitre 2
Noesi .4
Nova .4
Pettitte 11.75
Ramirez .45
Rivera 15
Robertson .5
Sabathia 23
Sanchez .45

Catchers
Cervelli .5
Posada 13.1

Infielders
Cano 9
Corona .4
Jeter 21
Miranda .4
Nunez .4
Pena .5
Rodriguez 29 (he’ll actually get $3 million more, but that’s to be paid by Texas)
Russo .4
Teixeira 20

Outfielders
Cabrera 2
Gardner .75
Granderson 5.5
Swisher 6.75

That makes 36 out of 40 spots. And the total payroll now sits at $190.1375 million.

After speaking with numerous other Yankee fans I think I’ve come to a good plan for the Yankees/Cashman for this offseason, leading into 2011. But before I get into that, I want to talk about Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain.

Oh, stop with the sighing!

Anyway, below is an email I sent to Mike at River Ave Blues.

I understand people’s
reluctance to go into next season with both Joba and Phil in the rotation. So
not only would those people like to bring back Pettitte, but they’d also like
the Yankees to sign a guy like Lackey. But that would hurt Phil and Joba’s
development as starters.

I believe, if the Yankees don’t want both of these kids in the rotation in
2010, then they HAVE to trade one of them. So they should probably forget about
Lackey, or somebody else like Randy Wolf. Go after Halladay, or another elite
pitcher with Joba or Phil as the big piece of a trade package, or stick with
the kids in the rotation.

I know it was painful to read more Joba/Phil stuff. But when you see the first bullet in my plan for 2010 you’ll understand why I showed you that email.

2010 Plan

• Trade Joba Chamberlain in a package for Roy Halladay. Toronto has a choice, they either lower their demands in a trade for Halladay, or they accept 2 draft picks for losing Halladay in the 2010/2011 offseason to free agency. Joba, Gardner, and a couple other pieces, or 2 draft picks? What would you take?
• Sign Hideki Matsui to a 1 year deal. I haven’t heard anybody, or read anything, say he’s going to want a multi-year deal.
• Sign Matt Holliday for however many years. 

Lineup
Jeter-SS
Swisher-RF
Teixeira-1B
Rodriguez-3B
Holliday-LF
Matsui-DH
Posada-C
Cano-2B
Cabrera-CF

Starting Rotation
Roy Halladay
CC Sabathia
AJ Burnett
Andy Pettitte
Phil Hughes

Now this would require the Yankees to spend a bit more than last year. Including Rivera, and without the bench and the rest of the bullpen, they would be looking at a payroll around $213 million. The Yankees could construct Holliday’s contract so that it doesn’t pay as much in the beginning, in order to keep the 2010 payroll down. Not to mention that I went high and figured around $8 million for a year of Matsui. Oh, and I said about $1.5 million for Hughes. But for those of you worried about payroll, there is good news next season, so keep reading.

2011 Plan

• Re-sign Halladay (if he hasn’t already signed an extension).
• Sign Carl Crawford
• Promote Austin Jackson. I figured he’ll probably be up later this season, but in 2011 it should turn into a full-time gig.
• Try and trade Melky or Swisher for prospects.

Lineup
Crawford-LF
Jeter-SS
Teixeira-1B
Rodriguez-3B
Holliday-RF
Posada-C
Cano-2B
Swisher/Melky/Montero-DH
Jackson-CF
The order of the lineup can change. I’m not set on this at all. Just getting the names out there.

Starting Rotation
Roy Halladay
CC Sabathia
AJ Burnett
Phil Hughes
Ivan Nova/Zach McAllister/”FA”/???

I haven’t forgot about the payroll people out there. With this lineup and rotation, the payroll should come in around $205 million. I figured about $20 million for re-signing Halladay, as well as $17 million for Crawford. Then there was Hughes raise to $2 million. AJax won’t get much, so I figured $500,000 would be a good guess. And keep in mind that this does not include Rivera, who will most likely retire.

I’m going to be updating this as things change, or I simply change my mind (which is known to happen). But feel free to let me know what you think by commenting here, emailing me, or joining the conversation at Daily Sports Pages’ Yankees Forum (link to DSP is to the right).

I’m not sure on the rotation. I figured it would be one of three scenarios…

Scenario 1:
Gm1 – CC
Gm2 – AJ
OFF DAY
Gm3 – Andy
Gm4 – CC (3 days rest)
Gm5 – AJ (3 days rest)
OFF DAY
Gm6 – Andy (3 days rest)
Gm7 – CC (3 days rest)

Scenario 2:
Gm1 – CC
Gm2 – AJ
OFF DAY
Gm3 – Andy
Gm4 – Gaudin
Gm5 – CC (4 days rest)
OFF DAY
Gm6 – AJ (5 days rest)
Gm7 – Andy (4 days rest)

Scenario 3:
Gm1 – CC
Gm2 – AJ
OFF DAY
Gm3 – Andy
Gm4 -CC (3 days rest)
Gm5 – Gaudin
OFF DAY
Gm6 – AJ (5 days rest)
Gm7 – Andy (4 days rest)

Scenario 1 seems like it would be best, as CC goes 3 times in the
series (if it goes that far), while AJ and Andy both get 2 starts. But
can those two be counted on on short rest? I know Andy can go on 4
days, since he has before (and was going to on Saturday night). But 3?

Of course, we could drop Andy’s 2nd start in Scenario 3, and use CC on 3 days instead.

I’d rather go Scenario 2. That would mean Gaudin takes a start, and CC
only gets 2 starts. But AJ would get 5 days off, and Andy would get 4.
And we know they can be 100% then. The 4th day off for CC would be
nice. And CC would be available for Game 7, if for whatever reason Pettitte struggles.

Out of all the things you’ve heard and read regarding the poor umpiring, the one thing you haven’t heard or read is to replace…or even fire…those umpires. Instead, a lot of people would rather give the umpires instant replay. Don’t get better umpires…give them something that will cover up their ineptness. Don’t you wish you could eff up at work, only to have some machine correct the mistake for you? And even better…when you do eff up, nobody says a single word about replacing you. Congratulations, MLB umpires! You make 6 figures, and you don’t even have to be that good at your job. The American dream!

I have a part-time job as a mechanic at a bowling alley. And if I don’t do my job well, do you think they will buy something that will do my job for me? Hell no. I’ll get fired, and replaced by somebody that can do the job well. And unlike an MLB umpire that is making between $120,000 and $350,000 (source), I’m making a measly $9/hr.

One of the funniest things I’ve read recently was this. It turns out that MLB is not going to put the “best” umpires on the field in the World Series. No…they are going to use the “most experienced”. Great!

One thing though…do you know what umpire, currently working in the ALCS, is one of the most experienced, with 26.5 years in MLB? I’ll give you a hint…it’s the same guy that not only missed the call at 3B in which Nick Swisher had apparently left the bag early on a tag play, but also missed the fact that both Robinson Cano and Jorge Posada were tagged out since neither one was touching a base. It was Tim McClelland. So much for the “most experienced” thing.

By the way, Phil Cuzzi and CB Bucknor, two other umpires that have made bone-headed calls/non-calls this postseason, both have 10 years experience in MLB. Which seems like a lot, especially considering that these guys umpire 10-12 years in the minors, and more than that in college and/or high school. However, I found a couple of umpires that have been in MLB for 30 (Derryl Cousins) and 32 years (Jerry Crawford). You can see the full roster of MLB umpires here.

I just read a good interview, from The Cleveland Plain Dealer in August 2005, with MLB Vice President of Umpiring, Mike Port. You can see it for yourself here. A few things really stood out to me.

PD: Is there a grading system for umpires?

MP: There is. It’s more of a pass / fail situation. We have certain
categories where they are graded in terms of exceeded / met / did not
meet. It’s not anything in terms of a numerical scale, but we do
evaluate virtually everything related to umpiring.

Pass/Fail? Really? As a college student, is there anything better than taking a pass/fail course? Where you can get a 65, but instead of having to deal with a “D” on your record, you simply get a “Pass”. But we all know that real college courses don’t do that. Yet, in a job that makes a person up to $350,000 a year, they don’t give “real” grades. But a simple “pass” or “fail”. That’s ludicrous. How do you look at the grades to determine who gets a postseason spot? From memory? Memory of all 68 MLB umpires? Yeah…right.

I’m glad that the umpires do get some sort of grading throughout the year. And some even get punished for really bad calls, or whatever. But do you think there’s any college that gives out their Magna *** Laude based on what the professors remember? I’m pretty sure they actually look at student’s GPAs. And remember…those GPAs are established using real grades, and aren’t based on how many “pass/fails” the student received.

PD: Are they graded each game?

MP: Yes – from every game that is observed firsthand, which is just
over 55 percent of them. In those games, we look not only at the
pitch-evaluation system, but missed calls, ejections, other situations.
We watch demeanor, hustle, form, concentration.

Good. But can we give them an actual grade on those things. Not simply a “pass” or “fail”.

Okay…so the umpires actually get an “exceeded”, “met”, “did not meet”. Not a “pass” or “fail”. But honestly…is there really much of a difference? Out of 68 umpires, can you really see who’s the best based on those 3 things? No…you can’t. Moving on…

PD: Can an umpire, regardless of service time, get demoted to the
minors because of too many mistakes or consistently poor ball-strike
calls?

MP: In a word, no. The system is not set up that way. We believe the
best point of evaluation comes when the umpire is added to the staff.
These guys trained for a substantial amount of time to get where they
are. You need to hire the right people.

What!?!? Umpires have tenure? WTF? That’s complete bull. Do I really need to explain how messed up that is? I mean, you do know that as you get older your reaction time, and sight, tend to get worse? Right? So it’s possible that you were one of the best after 10 years in the game, but once you were around for 20 years you just weren’t able to do the job well because you’re body failed you. Ugh.

Look. Keep the grading system. But instead of “exceed”, “met”, “did not meet”. Start giving out real grades. Hell, make it a 1-10 system. And then, at the end of the regular season, you can make a true list of the best umpires…and put them into the postseason. And if an umpire’s final grade is low enough, say “thanks, but we’re letting you go”. And then, after using the same system in the minors, promote the umpire with the highest grades to MLB.

Put the best umpires on the field….period. Because by not doing so, you’re opening yourselves up to major scrutiny, or worse yet…getting replaced by cameras and/or robots.